James Swerling from Ebury says the US dollar has been moving with the Fed; initially up on the hopes that they were almost done hiking rates, and now cooling off on jobs data. Jobless data is at a three month low in the US, and James says ADP numbers have underestimated the actual result in each of the last four months. He says daily volatility on AUDUSD has been highly elevated but it has travelled in only a 3 cent range since November 11th. When a tight range forms like this, James says a catalyst can see it break sharply out of the range to the tune of 3-4 cents.

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